Critical information for the U.S. trading day
Mike Pence dusted himself off from his “Hamilton” outing long enough to confirm on Sunday that Mitt Romney is a top candidate to serve as Donald Trump’s secretary of state. If Jim Cramer has it right, handing that title over to Mr. 47% could give the stock market a nice pop.
Why? Because it just might mean Trump is more savvy about foreign policy than some/many people might think.
For traders looking to scalp profits by timing Trump appointments — good luck with that — CNBC’s human bullhorn shared this tip: “A name-brand, Wall Street-friendly Treasury secretary, on top of tabbing Romney for state, would send this market through the roof … that is, if there even is a roof.”
As it stands now, Trump is likely to choose between investment banker Steven Mnuchin and Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling for the Treasury — though he apparently still has a thing for the idea of Jamie Dimon.
Meanwhile, “fake” has definitely emerged as a buzzword in recent days. “Fake news” on Facebook FB, +1.26% supposedly helped seal Hillary Clinton’s fate in the election, and the “fake economy,” at least according to our call of the day, could do the same for the stock market (see more below).
But if the inevitable reckoning is in the offing, you wouldn’t know it from the mostly upbeat pre-Thanksgiving holiday mood that seems to be settling over markets.
Key market gauges
Futures on the Dow YMZ6, +0.07% and the S&P ESZ6, +0.21% are up a bit this morning, but they aren’t straying too far from break-even territory. Crude CLZ6, +2.08% is also higher, and so is gold GCZ6, +0.58% . The Nikkei NIK, +0.77% rallied nicely, but otherwise no big moves in Asian markets ADOW, +0.63% . Europe SXXP, +0.13% has been choppy early.
Last week, blue chips managed to eke out some minimal gains, while the Nasdaq COMP, -0.23% knocked out a solid 1.6% rally. Techs still have a ways to go considering the stock market’s SPX, -0.24% post-Election Day advance has pulled the Dow DJIA, -0.19% up 2.9% in total, compared with a 2.5% rise for the Nasdaq. Read:Market Snapshot.
Forget “fake news,” it’s the “fake economy” investors should be worried about, says Graham Summers, chief market strategist at Phoenix Capital Research.
“President Obama at one point claimed that those who questioned the strength of the recovery were ‘peddling fiction,’” he wrote. “It’s an interesting claim given the entire recovery, at least post 2010, has been built on fake economic data to perpetuate a fake narrative of growth.”
From there, Summers went on to cast doubt on employment, GDP and government spending figures, to come up with this question: “So what happens to the fake stock market when it finally adjusts the economic realities?”
Barron’s used the chart below to help back its case for issuing 100-year bonds.
“Given the incoming administration’s ambitious plans, and the nation’s already high debt,” Randall Forsyth wrote for Barron’s cover story, “the president-elect might ask: What would Hamilton do?”
And in answering the question, he argues, Hamilton might say: “Take advantage by issuing Treasury bonds now — and for the longest term possible.”
This chart, Barron’s says, clearly supports the move that countries like Ireland and Mexico have already made. Read:The case for taming federal debt by issuing 100-year bonds
“Given that the odds today favor higher rather than lower interest rates, now would be the time to nail down historically low borrowing costs,” Forsyth wrote. “You would think someone like the billionaire president-elect, who calls himself ‘the King of Debt,’ would want to do what he can to minimize his borrowing costs.”
“I nudged my kids and reminded them, that’s what freedom sounds like” — Vice President-elect Mike Pence, responding to a question about the boos he heard from the crowd when he showed up at Hamilton on Friday night.
1.67 million — That’s how much Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by in the popular vote, according to the latest tally. Of note, that’s more than triple the popular-vote margin Al Gore had over George W. Bush back in 2000.
Considering Thanksgiving will cut things short, there’s still plenty of data to digest this week. We’ll get a tandem of reports from the housing sector on Tuesday and Wednesday. As for today, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October hits at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
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Presidential hopeful Kanye West endears himself again.
Those photos of Trump and Japan PM Abe are problematic, and not just because of Ivanka.
And for those of you who just can’t stomach what America’s going to look like under a Trump presidency, pack your bags for “The Bubble”